By Tom Henworth, First Year History
Well, it happened, didn’t it. I suspect most awoke, hangover aside, with a feeling somewhere between mild astonishment and dread at the news of the Democrat bloodbath that unfolded throughout that November night. Unless, of course, you are one of the 75 million Americans who dutifully handed Donald J. Trump the keys to the White House for a second time. Trump has been labelled a great many things: a Felon, a fascist, and to some a messianic saviour. Regardless of how you frame see him, what is certain is that the reverberations of his restoration will be felt far beyond the United States.
What’s more certain is that his election puts many around the globe in profound jeopardy.
Without wishing to come across as a deranged scaremonger, I think it necessary to put American’s position in the world into some well-needed context. So, let’s play some international Top Trumps (no pun intended). In 2023, the United States spent $916 billion on its military. Second was China at $296 billion, or less than a third. Its economy is 40 per cent larger than its nearest rival (again, China) accounting for 26 per cent of the globe with a nominal GDP of $28.78 trillion. It has eleven aircraft carriers, more than the next four nations combined. And so on and so on.
In less statistical terms (for my fellow humanities students), America is undeniably the most militarily, politically, culturally and economically powerful nation on the planet.
No state in human history has been able to exert comparable influence. With that, its leader has more might at their fingertips than any other individual. And like a drunk driver at the wheel of lorry, a reckless president with ambivalent tendencies to a democratic world order has the potential to cause catastrophic damage. Pity there is one just round the corner then.
So as that lorry comes thundering, let’s prepare for the damage. What might it look like?
A good place to start when assessing the implications of a Trump presidency internationally is the place where which it will be most acutely felt: Ukraine. There can be little doubt that the largest European War since 1945 has collapsed into a vicious stalemate, trapped between Russia’s seemingly infinite manpower and, at least for now, vast sums of mainly American money facilitating Ukraine’s defence. With no peace settlement imminent, Trump’s previous claims to end the conflict in ‘24 hours’ seem even more bizarre, if not frankly horrifying. Granted, even he likely knows that such a statement was vastly exaggerated, but it regardless establishes a disturbing precedent. The incumbent to the keys of America’s wealth has little interest in spending it in ways that do not directly impact the USA. Ukraine for Trump is merely ‘Europe’s problem’ and thus sending billions of dollars’ worth of weaponry would be wasteful and inefficient. In Trump’s ‘America first’ ideology, Ukraine, Gaza and more are seen as distant conflicts with no valid reason for intervention apparent. For the same reasons, Trump’s apathy towards to NATO has caused a restlessness in Europe. Even if America remains’ overtly supportive of the alliance, it remains unlikely that it will continue to prop up European defence financially under a Trump administration. Therefore, Europe faces the reality of becoming militarily self-reliant; and that is still assuming that Trump will continue to adhere to the principle of collective defence. Now, there is certainly an argument that in the long term this would not be a bad thing at all, with a Europe unshackled far more secure in its own hands, yet it is certain that it would be vulnerable at least initially. Significant decisions will have to be made by western leaders regarding how to pick up the mantle.
‘America first’ however extends far beyond Europe. Trump’s victory was based on a platform of heavy import tariffs, up to 60 per cent on China, making trade wars a definitive possibility. On that subject, perhaps China will be most significant of all in defining the impact of Trump internationally. The hostility he will undoubtedly bring to their relationship serves to rupture the already fragmenting global community between the American led West and China’s attempts to subvert it. Taiwan, with its economic cruciality to the USA via its production of semiconductors, may be the exception to the general rule in that Trump may be willing to take a more interventionist stance.
Yet, the greatest impact of Trump’s second term on the international community may be seem through his ideological dispositions. Since World War Two, America have set a precedent of promoting a liberal, democratic world order governed by the rule the law, human rights and multilateral agreements. The power of the post-war US state has enabled such a vision to, at least to a certain extent, come to fruition via organisations such as The United Nations, NATO and the European Union. However, this is a doctrine Trumpism firmly rejects. It is sceptical of such institutions, biased towards bilateral relationships and hawkish towards both allies and perceived foes. It is happy to embolden states such as Russia and Israel to pursue foreign policy in whatever manifestation so long as, in Trump’s transactional view of international relations, America doesn’t get the short end of the stick. And it is happy to abandon its position of global leadership in favour of withdrawing into isolationism, allowing an alternative and less than Savory global order to emerge led by states apathetic to democracy. It is no secret that Trump is an admirer of Vladmir Putin, Xi Jinping and other ‘Strong man’ figures’ unrestrained positions of power, and as such is content to carve up the world with them. Ultimately for him, they are the victors – it’s just business, right?
As such, it is down to the sadly dwindling number of nations who still support a free, democratic world to keep the dream alive. In the over 2000-year history of organised human civilisation, democracy is but a brief spark. Yet the millions of people who have given their lives and liberties away in its name is indicative of its enduring power, its universality among populations otherwise divided by culture, language or religion, and our imperative obligation to never let it die. Trump may be back. He may fundamentally shuffle the global order. But the billions out there who still believe in law, freedom, democracy and human decency will never allow him to win.
