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The A-Level Lottery: Why life-changing results aren’t always fair

A-levels can shape a student’s life. Epigram delves into why and how these national results have become a lottery in post pandemic years and often work against the least privileged students in the country.

By Amelia Edwards, Fourth year, English and French

A-Levels were never fair. Whether influenced by a student's postcode, school sector, or household income, exam results have always reflected more than just a simple assessment of ability. Since Covid, they’ve become even more of a lottery.

When schools closed in 2020, access to teaching depended on the speed of students’ WiFi and their ability to learn from home. Regular exams were replaced by predicted grades, school-dependent teacher assessments, and cut-down curriculums with lower grade boundaries. The result was a three-year, uneven spread of top grades. 

According to data from Ofqual, a record-breaking 44.3% of students achieved an A or an A* in 2021– higher than both 2020 and 2022. Before the pandemic, the percentage of students achieving an A or A* grade had consistently hovered between 25% and 27% since 2008. Grade inflation hid the effects of lost education behind unprecedented A-Level results, but the aftershocks are still being felt.

Evie Greville, a second year English student at Bristol University, shares her exam experience in 2023– when results dipped to pre-pandemic rates, despite the pandemic’s lingering effects on students’ education. For her, achieving two A* grades and an A took more effort than it would have done in other years, adding stress and uncertainty to an already-demanding set of exams.

As she watched students in her year group miss their university offers, ‘robbed of the grades they deserved’, young people across the country were hit just as hard by an abrupt return to pre-Covid grade boundaries.

For many students in Evie’s position, success felt as though it came down to the ‘luck of the year I took my test’.

Since 2024, results have begun to climb again, and this year, more than 28% of students achieved an A or A* grade. Though Ofqual suggests that this slight boost in results is because fewer low-achieving students are taking A-Level exams, it could also point to wider post-Covid changes. If higher grades are becoming the “new normal”, achieving an A in 2025 is more attainable than it would have been in 2019. This means that students’ chances of success are becoming at least in part influenced by the year they were born.

So, what does this widening gap between year groups mean for entry into university? This year, 82% of offer holders were accepted by their first choice university according to UCAS. This is lower than both 2021’s record-breaking 91% and 2020’s 88%. Though many opted to delay entry into higher education during the pandemic, this more recent decline reinforces the correlation between the proportion of top A-Level grades — fluctuating year to year — and university acceptance rates. For admission into top institutions like the University of Bristol, achieving A grades is often essential— and shifting grade boundaries can shape young people’s future.

Other forms of inequality, stemming from factors like postcode and school sector, also continue to threaten the fairness of A-Levels. Whilst London remained the highest-performing region of England this year, the proportion of students achieving a grade A or A* dropped by a percentage point in the North East, reflecting the increasing educational divide between Northern and Southern regions of the country. 

Additionally, as part of an ongoing trend, this year’s privately educated A-Level students performed significantly better than those at state schools. This is down to structural advantages such as smaller class sizes, more funding, and access to resources like private tutors. On the other hand, young people from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds continue to face more hurdles. 

Bookshop I Epigram/ Maddy Richards

Hanna Green, a second year Liberal Arts student who took her exams in 2024, reveals her that A-Level inequalities for her were shaped by her experiences at an underfunded state school in Essex.

In her area, ’access to top universities was almost unheard of’

Another student from her school who achieved a clean sweep of grade 9s in his GCSE exams — a more common occurrence in private schools — ’made headlines’. Her first few seminars at the University of Bristol left her with a sense of ‘imposter syndrome’. 

‘I had to spend hours and hours working’ to match the level of knowledge of privately educated University classmates who had already been taught this extra knowledge at school.

This reflects the stark difference between educational experiences at private versus state A-Level education, felt first-hand by many students from underrepresented backgrounds at top universities.

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Gaps in the level of support for students with pre-existing mental health conditions, neurodivergence, or learning difficulties — from depression to ADHD — can also unevenly affect A-Level performance. Unequal access to accommodations such as extra time, counselling, and smaller class sizes means that England’s education system nurtures some pupils and neglects others. In 2023/24, for example, 42% of private school students received extra time, compared to 26.5% in state schools. This can have a direct impact on how young people perform in exams.

From type of school to socioeconomic background, attainment gaps prove that A-Levels — and other academic opportunities — have a long way to go before the system is fair for everyone. Whether a student secures a place at their dream university can depend not just on effort, but on postcode, privilege, and the year they happen to sit their exams. To build a fairer education system, it is vital to recognise that grade boundaries — the lottery numbers of young people’s futures — are not always a straightforward reflection of merit. 

After all, the A-Level system was never built on a level playing field. 

Featured image: Epigram / Maddy Richards


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