By Ben Morrison, Second Year, Politics and Economics
In what sensible world would the most unpopular Prime Minister since polling began call an election with any hope to win it. The answer lies in my totally fictitious but eminently sensible predictions of how a well-run Labour campaign could return the government with a new and improved mandate and a chance to turn their downward slide around.
The first job of any successful campaign is to identify who are the voters which can swing the election to your side. Boris Johnson did this masterfully in 2019 by going for previously disenfranchised working class Brexit voting people. The centrist remainer is one of the least represented sections of British voters today. These are the working professionals who want to be in the EU, may be fiscally conservative but may not be, and most importantly are slightly open on immigration but probably don’t want to have unlimited immigration. These are the people of Tony Blair and David Cameron. Research from Prospect UK shows that 7 million of them exist, 10 per cent of the UK.
'As Starmer finds his back against the wall, his only option may be the nuclear one.'
My winning voters are not going to vote for Reform or the Greens, both too extreme, currently view the Conservatives as too socially right wing and think the Liberal Democrats have no chance of a success. However, they also think that Keir Starmer is not doing well and won’t support his current policy agenda (if you can find it, please do email me). What must be done to win them back is a move towards the EU, the Labour party manifesto must be overtly pro-European calling for a return to the single market and customs union. 58 per cent of the UK thinks that Brexit was a mistake, compared to only 30 per cent who think it was a good idea.
So how does my totally fictitious general election of June 2026 play out in the modern day. My first prediction is also my most contentious; the green party would almost certainly buckle under the weight of overwhelmingly unpopular opinions to the British public and an electoral coalition which brings together too many people with differing opinions. The average person in the UK does not want drugs legalised, they don’t want the removal of nuclear weapons and they definitely don’t want open borders. Between election cycles voters will happily give a protest vote, but in a close general election they will not be electorally viable.
My target voter is the obvious Lib-Dem voter, but the problem for all Lib-Dem voters is that they are never going to win. Under my centrist pro-EU manifesto, I would expect the Lib-Dem vote to collapse to only a few NIMBY constituencies just as it happened in 2015, 2017 and 2019. Liberal Democrat voters are always looking for their next EU fix and would back Keir Starmer. A similar loss would happen in the Conservative party. Most socially conservatives have already fled to Reform, many of the remaining One Nation Tories and other centrist remainers in the party would back the Labour manifesto. The only conservatives left would be the total fiscal hawks who refuse to back any Labour government; the Tories may well be in the same league as the Lib Dems on around 15 MPs.
This leaves the only major party left as Reform UK. The Reform coalition is already made up of Brexiteers, there would likely be no real change in their voter base from the currently predicted 24-30 per cent of votes. In most current predictions this would win due to vote splitting in the progressive block, however under my pro-EU Labour manifesto and the collapse of the greens there is a good chance of Labour topping up to 35 per cent of the votes. The June 2026 election may not be a landslide, but it is doubtful Reform would win the election, and through a possible coalition with the SNP or Lib Dems a workable majority may emerge.
Sam Couriel
The margin for Keir Starmer to form a majority after the election would be narrow, and the task itself is fraught with risk and danger of what a loss could mean. However, as Starmer finds his back against the wall with the left of his party waiting to attack, constant pressure over Mandelson and war between the Treasury and Defence, his only option may be the nuclear one. Through an election a Starmer government may find a sense of direction and be able to do away with all self-imposed redlines on the EU and taxation.
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